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XAUUSD "Bears" Hold the Lead in Overall Positions

12/21/2022 10:42 AM

Gold prices are corrected, retreating from local highs of December 13, updated the day before. The XAU/USD pair showed a rather active growth, which was due to the strengthening of corrective moods in the US currency, which reacted negatively to the publication of statistics from the US on the housing market. Another factor in the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument was the fear of a global recession against the backdrop of tightening monetary policy by the world's leading financial regulators. Last week, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points and also indicated that they expect slower monetary tightening going forward. Meanwhile, the EU economy is close to recession, and the Bank of England, in turn, says that the process of slowdown in the UK economy has already begun.

Today, the focus of investors will be statistics from the US on the December level of Consumer Confidence and the November dynamics of Existing Home Sales. Investors will also pay attention to Canadian statistics on inflation in November: current forecasts suggest that the Consumer Price Index will slow down from 0.7% to 0.4% MoM, but accelerate in annual terms from 6.9% to 7.4%.

Meanwhile, according to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold amounted to 125.6 thousand against 115.1 thousand a week earlier. "Bears" still hold the lead in general positions among swap dealers, and their number is 203.135 thousand against 91.509 thousand for "bulls". Last week, sellers opened 13.606 thousand more deals, and buyers opened 0.122 thousand more, which indicates an increased demand for the metal.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" activity at the moment. MACD indicator is growing, having formed a new buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is already approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought gold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1816.62, 1828.22, 1843.37, 1857.27. | Support levels: 1800.00, 1786.28, 1765.66, 1753.09.

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