During the Asian session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are slightly reduced, consolidating near 74.85.
Investors are cautious and wait to open new trading positions before publishing key US statistics on consumer inflation for December. The indicator is expected to slow down the negative dynamics from 7.1% to 6.5%, in which case the US Federal Reserve is likely to decide to raise interest rates in February by only 25.0 basis points, after which a pause in tightening monetary policy is possible.
The pressure on oil quotes was exerted by the statements of the US Department of Energy, which raised the forecast for the average energy production in the country for 2023 by 70.0K barrels to 12.41M barrels, while demand expectations for it decreased to 100.48M barrels despite signs of a recovery in China. For the week of January 6, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves showed a sharp increase of 14.865M barrels after an increase of 3.298M barrels earlier, and today experts expect the publication of relevant data from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): forecasts suggest a decline in the value of 2.375M barrels after an increase of 1.694M barrels over the past week.
According to Bloomberg, the Russian authorities are forced to sell Urals crude at prices almost twice lower the world's prices. For example, at the end of last week in the port of Primorsk, a Russian barrel cost 37.80 dollars compared to Brent Crude Oil for 78.57 dollars against the backdrop of a ban on energy supplies from Russia in response to the escalation of the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine. The negative trend may prompt official Moscow to reduce oil production, as it becomes increasingly difficult to compete with supplies from the Middle East due to the increased cost of freight tankers to deliver energy from Western Russian ports.
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat: the price range is slightly expanding from below, remaining quite spacious for the current market activity level. The MACD indicator shows uncertain growth, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is strengthening, quickly retreating from its lows.
Resistance levels: 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00. | Support levels: 74.00, 72.59, 71.00, 70.00.