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WTI Crude Oil Market Update

2/15/2023 11:32 AM

During the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil prices are developing a “bearish” momentum that formed at the beginning of the week, when quotes renewed local highs from January 27.

The negative dynamics are developing against technical factors and the strengthening of the US dollar, which eventually slowed down growth after the publication of statistics on consumer inflation: the indicator fell from 6.5% to 6.4%, while the forecast was for a decline to 6.2%. At the same time, the monthly value in January rose by 0.5% after rising by 0.1% last month, which, according to experts, is largely due to the correction in gasoline prices at the beginning of the year.

The pressure on quotes is exerted by data on oil reserves in the United States: as it became known on Monday, to combat rising fuel costs, the administration of President Joe Biden is preparing to bring an additional 26.0M barrels of oil to the market from the strategic reserve, which is already at its lowest level since 1983. According to Bloomberg, the storage capacity will be reduced from 371.5M barrels to 345.0M barrels in this case.

A report released on Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed an increase in oil reserves for the week of February 10 by 10.507M barrels, while in the past period, there was a correction of –2.184M barrels.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are trying to reverse into a horizontal plane: the price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator reversed into a downward plane and is preparing to form a new sell signal (the histogram should be below the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline, rapidly retreating from its highs, which indicated that the instrument is overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 78.74, 79.81, 81.00, 82.00. | Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.

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