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Waiting for the Decision of the Australian Regulator on the Interest Rate

3/6/2023 1:59 PM

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.6750, preparing to continue the downward trend against declining inflation in Australia.

On March 1, renewed data on the consumer price index was published: for February, the indicator was 7.4% YoY, below the forecast of 8.1% and the previous value of 8.4%, which indicates the successful policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to combat the inflation. Against this background, the regulator may adjust its monetary policy and at tomorrow's meeting at 05:30 (GMT+2) raise the interest rate by a lower value than investors expect: now, they expect an increase by 25.0 basis points to 3.60%.

The comments of agency officials and the accompanying statement are of great importance, and if experts find hints in it that price growth will significantly decrease during this year, then the Australian dollar will fall to 0.6670, and in case of statements about further tightening of monetary policy, the asset may strengthen to 0.6870 in the medium term.

The long-term trend remains upward but the price is correcting downwards to the key range support at 0.6670. If an accumulation zone is formed after its test, it will be possible to open long positions with the target at 0.6870, and in case of its breakdown, the trend will reverse downwards with sales targets at 0.6585 and 0.6500.

The medium-term trend is downward: the trading instrument is around the broken zone 2 (0.6757–0.6737), and if it is held, we can expect quotes to decrease with the target at the last week's low. The key resistance of the range is shifting to 0.6915–0.6895, and in the case of the price correction to this area, new sales with the target at 0.6700 can be considered.

Resistance levels: 0.6870, 0.7000, 0.7130. | Support levels: 0.6670, 0.6585, 0.6500.

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