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USDJPY Under Pressure at the Beginning of a New Trading Week

11/28/2022 11:57 AM

The US dollar shows a relatively active decline against the Japanese yen, keeping close to its local lows from November 15 and to the level of 138.50.

The American currency has been trying to recover since the end of the last trading week after the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, indicating a readiness to weaken the "hawkish" position regarding the future increase in the interest rate. This strengthened the market's belief that in December the regulator would decide to increase the indicator by only 50 basis points. However, the Fed stressed that this does not mean the closeness of the tightening cycle of monetary policy to completion, as inflation in the US remains near record highs.

In turn, the yen is moderately supported by optimistic macroeconomic statistics. Data released last Friday pointed to an acceleration in the Tokyo Consumer Price Index from 3.5% to 3.8%, which was better than market expectations of growth to 3.6%. CPI excluding Food and Energy in Japan accelerated from 2.2% to 2.5%, while analysts had projected a slowdown to 2.1%.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting appearance of multi-directional dynamics in the short/medium term. MACD is falling, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is approaching zero level, signaling the risks of the US currency being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 139.58, 140.79, 141.50, 142.54. | Support levels: 138.50, 137.50, 136.50, 135.57.

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