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USDCHF Consolidation Near June 2021 Lows
4/7/2023 12:25 PMDuring the Asian session, USD/CHF shows ambiguous dynamics, consolidating near 0.9040 and the record lows of June 2021, renewed earlier.
Market activity remains low, as some investors are preparing for the celebration of Catholic Easter, and are also waiting for today's publication of key US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the March report on the labor market may affect the further development of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve: forecasts suggest a decrease in nonfarm payrolls from 311.0K to 240.0K, a slight reduction in part-time employment, and the preservation of unemployment around 3.6%. Experts fear that the actual dynamics will be poorer, as the earlier report of the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company on employment in the private sector reflected an increase in the indicator by only 145.0K after 261.0K last month, although analysts expected a growth of 200.0K. Statistics on jobless claims, released yesterday, also was negative: initial claims decreased from 246.0K to 228.0K against the expected fall to 200.0K, and secondary claims increased from 1.817M to 1.823M with forecasts of a reduction to 1.699M.
According to SonntagsZeitung, the bank UBS Group AG, which announced the takeover of its competitor Credit Suisse AG last month, should cut about 20.0–30.0% of the staff, that is, 25.0–36.0K employees who engaged in duplication of professional duties. It is noted that only in Switzerland, 11.0K specialists may lose their jobs, and the risk zone, first of all, will be the internal business of the organization and its investment bank.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining: the price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator points downwards and keeps a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, on the contrary, signals in favor of further growth of the instrument, retreating from the lows, indicating that the American dollar may become oversold in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9070, 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200. | Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8925.
