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USDCHF Consolidation in Anticipation of New Movement Drivers

2/20/2023 10:54 AM

During the Asian session, the USD/CHF shows ambiguous trading dynamics, holding near the level of 0.9240.

Market activity remains subdued as American markets are closed on Monday for President's Day. The dollar is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics and the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, which has no plans to complete the current cycle of raising interest rates. On Thursday, investors will pay attention to the renewed estimate of the dynamics of Q4 2022 gross domestic product (GDP), where forecasts do not imply changes from the previous indicators of 2.9%, and on Friday, January data on new home sales and statistics on personal budgets of households will be published: experts expect that income will increase by 0.6% after rising by 0.2% last month, and expenses will decrease by 0.1% after a negative trend of –0.2% earlier.

The franc is positively affected by statistics from Switzerland, released on Friday: Q4 2022 industrial production rose by 6.1% after 6.0% earlier. The country's authorities will support the price limit for Russian oil products introduced by the G7 and EU members: Ministry of Economy noted that trade, brokerage, and transportation, for example, heating oil from Russia or Russian origin, are now allowed only if the price per barrel does not exceed 45.0 US dollars, and a price limit of 100.0 US dollars per barrel applies to gasoline, diesel, and oil.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of ambiguous dynamics in the nearest time intervals. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is trying to consolidate above the zero line. Stochastic reversed downwards at 80 in response to the "bearish" momentum at the end of last week.

Resistance levels: 0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9450. | Support levels: 0.9250, 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100.

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