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USDCHF Awaiting the US Fed Meeting Minutes

11/22/2022 11:21 AM

The US dollar shows an uncertain decline, consolidating near the local highs of November 11, updated the day before. At the same time, market activity remains reduced, as trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, as well as a block of macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders in October and business activity in November. Analysts expect new signals from the US regulator regarding future monetary policy. It is assumed that already in December, the Fed may go for some softening of its rhetoric and raise the interest rate by only 50 basis points. However, the value could be adjusted to higher levels than originally estimated as domestic inflation remains well above the 2.0% target.

Few macroeconomic publications are expected today. In the US, only the data on the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as the Redbook Index of retail sales for the week ended November 18, will be released. Data from Switzerland are not expected in the near future, so investors will continue to take a lead from the previous publications. In particular, on Friday, November 18, statistics on the dynamics of Industrial Production in Switzerland were released: in the third quarter, the indicator accelerated from 5.0% to 5.2%, which turned out to be better than the average analysts' forecasts.

Meanwhile, the Swiss authorities reported that in the event of an acute shortage of "blue fuel", industrial enterprises are likely to be disconnected from gas distribution networks for at least a day, while households will be required to lower the temperature in the premises to 20 degrees. Head of the Department of Economic Affairs Guy Parmelin said the Federal Council had already implemented a package of measures designed to prevent a negative scenario from developing, but it was possible that temporary quotas for the sale and purchase of gas lasting 24 hours or even more would be established, which would ensure the stability of the energy grid.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short and middle term. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is located in close proximity to its highs, indicating the risks of the US dollar being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9762. | Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9478, 0.9400, 0.9350.

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