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US Department of Energy Expects Oil Production to Rise this Year

11/9/2022 1:03 PM

The North American WTI Crude Oil quotes are correcting in a downtrend around 87.65.

The driver for the decline was yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy: the forecast for the average production of raw materials this year increased by 80.0K barrels per day to 11.83M barrels per day, but the next year it decreased by 50.0K barrels per day to 12.31M barrels per day. The average price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil will be 102.13 dollars, not 102.09 dollars as previously expected, and the future value of North American WTI Crude Oil rose from 95.74 dollars to 95.88 dollars, bringing the global spread position is now above the annual average of 6.6 dollars. Considering the forecast prices of the US Department of Energy, this difference should be 6.2 dollars.

The local dynamics of the trading instrument were influenced by the data on energy stocks from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which the last figure increased by 5.618M barrels compared to a decrease of 6.530M a week earlier. Similar statistics are expected tonight from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): oil reserves may be adjusted by 1.360M barrels.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving around the resistance line of the global downward channel, starting the formation of a reversal.

Technical indicators confirm a high probability of a decline: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator began to approach the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming downward bars, decreasing in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 91.20, 96.60. | Support levels: 85.40, 80.85.

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