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Turkish Real Estate Market is Actively Declining

11/18/2022 12:39 PM

The EUR/TRY pair is correcting around 19.2626.

Turkey's economy, which relies on foreign investment, is under heavy pressure due to high commodity prices, as evidenced by large fluctuations in leading macroeconomic indicators: real estate sales in October fell by 25.3% compared to last year. However, the indicator from January to October was 6.7% higher than last year, which indicates a decrease in the value in the last month. Home sales using mortgages fell by 52.7%, which is quite natural given bank mortgage rates, which are at 14% in the local currency and between 7% and 9% in euros, and for households under pressure from unprecedented inflation are very high.

The euro is supported by news of a high level of filling gas storage facilities, but macro statistics still show the weakness of the EU economy: according to data for October, the inflation rate has renewed a record of 10.6% from 9.9% last month. Most of all, investors were disappointed by the continuation of the increase in the core consumer price index, which is called "net inflation," to 5.0% from 4.8% a month earlier. This figure does not include energy and food prices and is a reflection of price inflation in the leading sectors of the economy, the growth of which indicates the need to continue raising the interest rate of the European Central Bank (ECB).

On the daily chart of the asset, the quotes grow within the wave of global growth, having renewed the historical high around 19.5100.

Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms upward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 19.5150, 20.5500. | Support levels: 19.0000, 18.1300.

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