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Turkish Manufacturing Confidence Rise for the Third Month in a Row

3/29/2023 11:09 AM

The USD/TRY pair is artificially held within an extremely narrow upward range of 18.7000–19.3000 ahead of the presidential election scheduled for May, 14.

The incumbent President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is in favor of maintaining the stability of the national currency and the current rate of monetary policy, so the price fluctuations of the lira at this time are practically excluded. The data on the Manufacturing Confidence Index for March were published yesterday, which recorded a correction to 105.2 points from 102.4 points earlier, being the third consecutive month of improvement in the index from 97.5 points in December 2022. On Thursday, the Turkish Statistical Institute (Türkstat) will release its Economic Confidence Index, which is also expected to rise to 100.0 from 99.10 in February.

The US dollar has been holding around 102.200 in the USD Index for the third day already, and there is a lack of statistics that can change the dynamics now. Yesterday, the Conference Board's traditional monthly consumer confidence index for March was published, which showed an increase to 104.2 points from 103.4 points in February, and it was these data that could provoke investors to buy the dollar but this did not happen.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the next wave of the global ascending corridor, slowly approaching the resistance line at 19.3000.

Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is in a buy state, slowly moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 19.1400, 19.3000. | Support levels: 19.0660, 18.9000.

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