Solid News
Tourist Flow to the UK from EU Countries is Actively Declining
4/10/2023 11:27 AMThe GBP/USD pair is trading with multidirectional dynamics, getting ready to test 1.2400 for a breakdown. The pound has maintained its downward momentum since the middle of last week, when the instrument reversed downwards near its June record highs. At the same time, the American currency remains under moderate pressure, and the overall level of activity last week was noticeably declining ahead of the Easter weekend.
On Friday, April 7, the March report on the labor market was released in the US, which supported the buying sentiment in the American currency. Among other things, investors reacted positively to the decline in the Unemployment Rate from 3.6% to 3.5% with a neutral forecast, as well as an increase in the Labor Force Participation Rate from 62.5% to 62.6%, with a forecast of 62.4%. Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 236.0 thousand, while analysts expected an increase of 240.0 thousand, and the February figure was revised from 311.0 thousand to 326.0 thousand. The Average Hourly Earnings in monthly terms rose from 0.2% to 0.3%, and in annual terms it slowed down from 4.6% to 4.2%, while markets expected a decline to only 4.3%.
The Guardian analyzed the statistics and concluded that the tourist flow has significantly decreased after the UK left the EU, since now those entering the country need to apply for foreign passports and visas, while before only an identity card was enough. In January and February 2019, the number of passenger vehicles transported by the Le Shuttle service amounted to 314.0 thousand, and in the same period of 2023 it only slightly exceeded 251.0 thousand. In turn, the number of bookings from guests from Germany and France, according to Experience Oxfordshire, has decreased by half, compared with the figure before the pandemic. Thus, according to experts, the UK has left the top 10 countries popular among German and French tourists.
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is slightly narrowed from below, remaining spacious enough for the current market activity. MACD reversed towards declining, having formed a new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing a more stable decline and is located in the middle of its area.
A downtrend is likely to develop in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600. | Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2283, 1.2236.
