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The Price is under Pressure as US Oil Inventories Rise

3/2/2023 1:57 PM

After the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, the corrective growth in Brent Crude Oil prices stopped at 84.50.

Thus, weekly oil stocks, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), published this week, amounted to 6.203M barrels, higher than the forecast of 0.440M barrels but lower than the previous value of 9.895M barrels. The corresponding figure from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), published yesterday, increased to 1.165M barrels against the forecast of 0.457M barrels, less than the previous value of 7.648M barrels. The positive dynamics reflect a drop in demand from market participants as a result of expectations of further tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which will be required to curb inflation.

An increase in the interest rate may increase the risks of a recession in the US, and against the backdrop of similar problems in the economies of developed countries, it may act as a catalyst for a global downturn in the global economy, and oil is likely to continue to decline to 79.70 and 75.70 in the medium term.

The long-term trend is downward. At the end of February, the trading instrument corrected to the resistance level of 84.50, and if it continues to hold, the decline to 79.70, 77.70, and 75.70 will likely continue, and in case of its breakout, the correction will continue to the area of the January high at 88.90.

The medium-term trend is downward. The quotes are below the key resistance 86.33–85.67, and short positions may be opened with the targets at 80.50 and 79.10, and the main target is zone 2 (75.84–75.18).

Resistance levels: 84.50, 88.90. | Support levels: 79.70, 77.70, 75.70.

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