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The New Zealand Dollar is Trying to Regain Ground

3/24/2023 11:01 AM

The NZD/USD pair shows a slight decline, returning to the "bearish" trend after moderate growth for two sessions in a row, as a result of which local highs from February 16 were updated, but the "bulls" failed to consolidate on new levels.

The reason for a moderate downward correction was macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of jobless claims. For the week ended March 17, the number of Initial Jobless Claims decreased from 192.0 thousand to 191.0 thousand, while analysts expected an increase in the indicator to 201.0 thousand, and the number of Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended March 10 increased from 1.680 million to 1.694 million, which, however, turned out to be slightly lower than the projected 1.701 million. At the same time, statistics on the US housing market turned out to be disappointing: New Home Sales in February slowed down from 1.8% to 1.1%, which was below expectations at 1.6%.

The day before, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway, in his speech at the New Zealand Capital Market Forum in Wellington, noted that a significant adjustment of the interest rate, which was raised by 450 basis points in 18 months, is putting pressure on consumer spending, but at the same time leads to the necessary effect of curbing economic growth. If inflationary pressures continue to mount, the official said, the RBNZ is ready to continue "hawkish" monetary policy in an attempt to achieve a shallow recession. New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter.

Today, the focus of investors will be a block of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders, as well as March data on business activity from S&P Global. Forecasts suggest that Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft will show zero growth in February after rising 0.8% in January.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic, which was actively falling at the beginning of the week, is trying to revise upwards, being approximately in the center of its area and signaling an increase in "bullish" sentiment in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400. | Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100, 0.6049.

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