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The First Test Trials of the Digital Lira have been Completed

1/6/2023 10:49 AM

During the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair is growing moderately and is testing 18.7720 for the breakout, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market.

Today, investors will pay attention to data on the state of the US labor market for December. It is expected that the results may turn out to be better than forecasts since yesterday, the experts received several optimistic signals: a report from the company Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on Nonfarm Payrolls indicated an increase by 235.0K after an increase of 127.0K earlier, although analysts expected the dynamics to accelerate only to 150.0K, while initial jobless claims for the week of December 30 decreased from 223.0 to 204.0K, ahead of market expectations of 225.0K.

National statistics moderately support the lira: in December, consumer prices rose by 64.3%, significantly less than the increase of 84.4% in November. The current reduction in inflation is the most significant since 1995 and only reflects the effects of a rapid price fall and a marked decline in energy costs. Last week, the Central Bank of Turkey conducted the first test transactions using the national cryptocurrency (CBDC). The next stage involves joint testing of the digital lira with banks and financial technology companies, as well as studying the economic and legal framework of the currency and its technological requirements. In October, Turkey's Office of Presidential Strategy and Budget released a program that includes initiatives to develop a CBDC integrated with digital identity and FAST, a payment system run by the country's top financial regulator.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands grow moderately: the price range expands from above but not as fast as the "bullish" dynamics develop. MACD grows, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, but the indicator line is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating that the US dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 18.8041, 18.8500, 18.9000, 18.9500. | Support levels: 18.7500, 18.6815, 18.6390, 18.6000.

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