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The Canadian Currency Holds the Lead in the Pair

11/25/2022 12:56 PM

The Canadian currency holds the lead in pairing with the US dollar, which is largely caused by the systematic decrease in the value of the latter after the publication of the November minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. At the moment, the instrument is correcting down, trading around 1.3320.

Nevertheless, the macroeconomic data could not support the positions of the Canadian currency either. According to the report of the National Statistical Office, Retail Sales in September decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous month, in which growth was recorded at around 0.7%. The index of change in retail sales, excluding cars, fell 0.7%, which was worse than the analysts' forecast of –0.6% and the August estimate of 0.5%. The October report on New Home Prices, which showed negative dynamics for the fifth month in a row, correcting to –0.2% from –0.1% earlier, also disappointed investors.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to be extremely weak on the back of a break in trading due to the Thanksgiving Day, and the USD Index quotes are held at 105.600. This week, the business magazine The American Thinker published an article pointing out that almost all US states are effectively bankrupt. For example, the financial center of New York is given as an example, the tax collection of which for 2023 is planned at the level of 73.3 billion dollars, and the costs are estimated at around 101.1 billion dollars. Thus, the loss of the city's budget is 27.8 billion dollars, which is offset by additional subsidies, increasing the global deficit of the national budget.

On the daily chart, the price is correcting as part of the development of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.

The range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is expanding in the direction of the decline, increasing the likelihood of a continuation of the trend, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new bars, still holding in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3110. | Resistance levels: 1.3380, 1.3530.

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