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The BTCUSD is Upside Potential Remains

1/23/2023 2:20 PM

Last week, the BTC/USD pair continued to grow. The price rose to the level of 23400.00 for the first time since August last year, but could not stay there and rolled back to the area of 22500.00. The cryptocurrency market is under the influence of two main opposing factors: a likely slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve and the consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX digital exchange.

Positive sentiment associated with monetary factors still prevails. Investors are confident that against the backdrop of declining inflationary pressures, the US regulator will start raising interest rates less rapidly, reducing the increment to 25 basis points from 50 basis points. These actions should lead to a decrease in support for the US currency and at the same time reduce the likelihood of the US economy going into recession, which increases the risk appetite of investors.

On the other hand, the fall in digital asset prices due to new problems of cryptocurrency companies arising after the collapse of FTX may resume. Last week, the Genesis Global Capital platform, which is part of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) holding, declared itself bankrupt. Previously, the company experienced a shortage of liquidity of about 1.0 billion dollars amid FTX's problems, but until recently it unsuccessfully tried to negotiate with creditors for financial assistance. To cover losses, parent company DCG has already been forced to suspend the payment of dividends to shareholders and put up for sale the CoinDesk media outlet. The bankruptcy of Genesis Global Capital, in turn, raised investor doubts about the stability of the financial position of its leading creditor, the Bybit exchange. However, Bybit management assured that client funds would not be affected in any case. Also, investors are worried about the possibility of liquidating the remaining assets of FTX to compensate for losses to creditors, since cryptocurrencies in the amount of 3.5 billion dollars will have to be sold, which could put serious pressure on the quotes of all digital assets. Thus, the negative consequences of the fall of FTX on the crypto industry remain, although they have recently faded into the background.

The price corrected to the level of 22500.00 (Murrey level [6/8]), a breakdown of which will give the prospect of developing a decline to the levels of 21250.00 (Murrey level [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 20000.00 (Murrey level [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key level for the "bulls" remains the level of 23400.00, consolidation above which will ensure growth to the levels of 25000.00 (Murrey level [8/8]) and 26250.00 (Murrey level [+1/8]).

The uptrend in the BTC/USD pair continues, as evidenced by the upward reversal of Bollinger Bands and the growth of MACD in the positive zone. Stochastic reversal downwards near the overbought zone does not rule out a corrective decline, but its potential is seen as limited.

Resistance levels: 23400.00, 25000.00, 26250.00. | Support levels: 22500.00, 21250.00, 20000.00.

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