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The AUDUSD is Consolidating Near 0.69

1/10/2023 10:26 AM

During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, consolidating near 0.6900 after a two-day growth and renewing local highs from August 30. However, the "bullish" trend development is not excluded.

The impetus for the depreciation of the American currency was macroeconomic data, which convinced investors that the US Federal Reserve could soon start easing monetary policy: in December, nonfarm payrolls reached 223.0K, and unemployment fell to 3.5%, with preliminary growth estimates, confirming the resilience of the sector. Inflation in the country is still far from the target level of 2.0%. However, a steady downward trend has already formed, and now the regulator is closely monitoring the labor market, fearing its overheating. The agency may move to a more moderate pace of interest rate adjustment, and its peak value will be lower than the previously announced 5.0%, although officials in the minutes of the last meeting signaled the preservation of the "hawkish" rate.

Poor macroeconomic statistics from Australia did not affect the trading instrument: the number of building permits issued fell by 9.0% after falling by 5.6% last month, although analysts expected a much reduction of 1.0%, and negative dynamics intensified from –6.2% to –15.1% YoY, which also was worse than experts' forecasts. On Wednesday, data on November's consumer inflation and retail sales will be released.


On the daily chart, Bollinger bands steadily grow: the price range expands but not as fast as the "bullish" activity develops. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic remains in an upward direction but is close to its highs, indicating that the Australian dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100. | Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6750.


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