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RBA Decided to take a Break in Raising Rates

4/20/2023 1:11 PM

Amid the decline of the Australian dollar, the AUD/USD pair is correcting around 0.6704.

The uncertainty of the dynamics increased after the publication of the minutes of the meeting on the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which noted that price growth had peaked at the end of 2022 but a high risk of an increase in electricity costs of 20.0–30 0% by autumn might provoke another jump in local inflation. Given this forecast, the regulator decided to soften the "hawkish" rhetoric and leave the cash rate at 3.6% and the foreign exchange rate at 3.5%. Officials of the department do not exclude that the increase in the indicator may continue to compensate for the expected increase in inflation by 0.25%. The local dynamics of the currency remain stable against yesterday's publication of the index of leading indicators, which showed zero dynamics after falling by 0.1%.

The US dollar is holding near the beginning of the week at around 101.700 in the USD Index because of low trading activity due to the lack of key macroeconomic statistics. Today, initial jobless claims will be released, and analysts expect an increase in the figure to 240.0K from 239.0K a week earlier, which may cause an increase in the average claims over the past four weeks to 255.1K from 240.0K previously.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves within a local ascending corridor with dynamic boundaries 0.6850–0.6650, which can work as a Flag pattern.

Technical indicators do not give a clear signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are close to the signal line, and the AO histogram forms downward bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6880. | Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6520.

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