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Prices for "Black Gold" are Recovering

1/6/2023 11:42 AM

Prices for WTI Crude Oil show uncertain growth during the Asian session, developing a weak "bullish" momentum formed the day before. Quotes are testing the level of 74.40; however, trading activity remains low, as investors await the publication of a report on the US labor market for December. The current forecasts assume an increase in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector by 200.0 thousand after an increase of 263.0 thousand in the previous month and the Unemployment Rate at the previous level of 3.7%. Nevertheless, given the optimistic report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector (235.0 thousand employed outside the agricultural sector against the forecast of 150.0 thousand), it is possible that the real dynamics will be noticeably better.

A certain pressure on oil quotes was also exerted by a report from the US Department of Energy on the dynamics of stocks, which increased by 1.694 million barrels over the week of December 30 after an increase of 0.718 million barrels over the previous period. The real dynamics also turned out to be higher than the 1.154 million barrels predicted by analysts.

The main barrier to the restoration of a full-fledged upward dynamics remains the risks of low demand. China, the largest importer of "black gold", continues to record a surge in the incidence of COVID-19 after the lifting of a number of quarantine restrictions. In addition, the intention of Chinese authorities to pay for oil supplies from the Persian Gulf countries in yuan can completely change the current rules of the global energy market, significantly reducing the global influence of the US dollar. In addition, the result of the December meeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping with the leaders of the countries of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf may be joint work on the exploration and production of oil and gas in the South China Sea, as well as financing the activities of oil refineries and chemical industry enterprises.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly changing, being spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is falling, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its lows, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating risks of an oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00. | Support levels: 74.00, 72.59, 71.00, 70.00.

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