The GBP/USD pair is trading with mixed dynamics, holding near 1.2380. The "bulls" are inactive at the beginning of the week, while the US dollar is receiving support from technical factors after a noticeable decline last week.
The focus of investors is on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on business activity from S&P Global. The Services PMI in January is expected to remain unchanged at 49.9 points, while the Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline moderately from 45.3 points to 45.0 points. Similar data will be released in the US during the day, but the forecasts for American statistics are not so optimistic.
The director-general of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), Tony Danker, called on the national government to introduce measures to stimulate economic growth: increase green investment, reduce staffing shortages at enterprises, and also resolve trade problems that have arisen after Brexit. Speaking at University College London on Monday, he noted the positive steps taken by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt to stabilize the economy since Liz Truss left office, but stressed that more decisive action is needed to stabilize the situation. The CBI forecast is that the Prime Minister should fulfill his promise to deliver 0.1% economic growth by the end of the year. According to Danker, the problem of low investment at the moment is no longer behavioral, but structural, and the loss of national business by 2030 could reach 4.3 billion pounds, if the government does not provide additional support measures.
December statistics on producer inflation will be published in the UK this week. The non-seasonally adjusted Core Producer Price Index is expected to rise from 13.3% to 13.9% on an annualized basis and from 0.5% to 1.1% on a monthly basis.
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the multidirectional dynamics appearance in the short term. MACD indicator is trying to reverse into the descending plane, keeping the previous buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, retreating from the level of "80", indicating the risks of overbought British currency in the ultra-short term.
Current showings of the indicators do not contradict the development of the correctional decline in the short term.
Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700. | Support levels: 1.2311, 1.2240, 1.2150, 1.2084.