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Poor statistics Put Pressure on the Positions of the AUD

12/5/2022 12:15 PM

The AUD/USD pair is holding within an uptrend at 0.6838, but poor macroeconomic data from Australia limit its upside potential.

Thus, the volume of investment in real estate decreased by 2.2% in November from –4.8% a month earlier, while retail sales lost 0.2% after rising by 0.6% in the previous period due to high inflation. The rapid dynamics of consumer prices are also putting pressure on the services sector, in which business activity decreased to 47.6 points from 49.3 points, and corporate profits fell by –12.4% in the third quarter after increasing by 7.8% earlier, while the same figure before tax corrected by –15.9%, which is not comparable with the growth of 14.5% in the last quarter. Investors are waiting for tomorrow's decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the interest rate, hoping for a slowdown in its rate of increase.

The AUD/USD pair is supported by the negative dynamics of the US dollar, which for the first time since mid-summer fell to 104.000 in the USD Index due to poor statistics on the labor market: in November, the increase in non-farm payrolls amounted to 263.0K, which is below 284.0K, and in the private non-agricultural sector, the indicator rose by 221.0K, which is lower than the October value of 248.0K.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a downward channel, has reached the resistance line, and is preparing to break it.

Technical indicators reinforce the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6870, 0.7010. | Support levels: 0.6760, 0.6600.

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