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Last week, the NZD/USD pair was rising, testing the 0.6415 mark (50.0% Fibonacci retracement), where it is currently trading.

The asset is under the influence of several opposing factors and cannot continue to move up yet, although its strengthening is facilitated by the likelihood of further easing of the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve after reducing inflationary pressure in the US economy, as well as the growth of China's gross domestic product (GDP), which in the fourth quarter last year increased by 2.9%, significantly exceeding experts' expectations of 1.8%. The recovery of the second world economy after lifting quarantine restrictions will contribute to an increase in consumption and exports to China, including from New Zealand.

Nevertheless, the situation of the country's economy remains challenging, holding back the growth of quotations. In the fourth quarter, according to the latest data from the New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER), the business confidence index was at its lowest level since the 1970s, with 70.0% of companies expecting the economy to worsen over the next 12 months amid weakening demand, rising price pressure and an increase in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which could trigger a deep recession. The weakness of commodity prices also negatively affects the position of the currency: according to the Global Dairy Trade auction, the cost of milk and dairy products, the leading national export item, has been declining since mid-December, and if this trend continues, the New Zealand dollar will be under significant pressure.

Optimism in the market associated with monetary factors and the recovery of the Chinese economy still prevails, but it looks pretty unreliable.

The key "bullish" level is 0.6415, consolidation above, which will give the prospect of further growth to 0.6510 (December highs) and 0.6620 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). If the middle line of Bollinger bands (0.6320) is broken down, it will become possible to develop a decline to 0.6225 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.6100 (Murrey level [6/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone, and Stochastic reverses downwards from the overbought zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6415, 0.6510, 0.6620. | Support levels: 0.6320, 0.6225, 0.6100.