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NZDUSD an Attempt to Change the Trend to an Upward One
11/14/2022 2:10 PMLast week, as a result of the strengthening of risky assets against the USD, the NZD/USD pair reached the key resistance level of the long-term downtrend of 0.6100.
However, the New Zealand economy shows contradictory data. On the one hand, we can observe an increase in inflation expectations: according to the latest data, the level of consumer prices in Q1 2023 may reach 3.6%, exceeding the previous value of 3.1%. On the other hand, there is a natural decline in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector: in October, the indicator was 49.3 points, down from 51.7 points.
Thus, the further dynamics of the New Zealand dollar will depend on the reaction of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to incoming macroeconomic data. The next meeting of the department is scheduled for November 23, and if the bank raises the interest rate, it will be possible to assume a trend change to an upward one.
At the moment, the descending priority is maintained. The pair is testing the 0.6100 level, if it is held, a new downward momentum will begin, the target of which will be a test of the 0.5775–0.5750 support area. If the 0.6100 mark is broken out and the price consolidates higher, then the trend will change to an upward one. In this case, it will be possible to assume the growth of the pair to the level of 0.6460 in the long term.
Within the framework of the mid-term uptrend, the pair broke out the target zone of 0.6086-0.6072. The next growth target is the 0.6226–0.6212 zone. The key trend support is shifting to the levels of 0.5969–0.5953, if the price corrects to this area, then it will be possible to consider new purchases with a target at last week's maximum of 0.6125.
Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6240, 0.6345. | Support levels: 0.5775, 0.5750, 0.5600.
