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Labor Shortage Hinders the Growth of the Swiss Economy
2/14/2023 11:17 AMDuring the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is moderately declining, developing the "bearish" momentum that formed yesterday, and is testing the level of 0.9175 for a breakdown against the backdrop of the market waiting for the publication of key macroeconomic statistics from the US.
Forecasts suggest a further decline in consumer inflation in January from 6.5% to 6.2% YoY and an increase from 0.1% to 0.5% MoM. New evidence of a slowdown in the indicator may put significant pressure on the US Federal Reserve regarding the prospects for monetary policy. However, some officials of the regulator oppose a retreat from the "hawkish" rhetoric: in particular, yesterday, its representative Michelle Bowman called on the agency to raise interest rates to reach the inflation target of 2.0%.
National macroeconomic statistics supported the franc: the consumer price index corrected 0.6% in January after falling 0.2% last month, although analysts had expected a weaker increase of 0.4%. Inflation accelerated from 2.8% to 3.3% YoY, while the forecast was 2.9%. The president of the Swiss Association of Employers, Valentin Vogt, believes that the workforce shortage, which is now estimated at 300K people, is a significant obstacle to the growth of the country's economy since most citizens prefer to look for part-time employment. He said the agency intends to push for policy measures, such as individual taxation and changing conditions for babysitting and childcare, to encourage the population to work more and attract citizens of other countries.
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving in a flat: the price range is practically unchanged but remains quite spacious for the current market activity level. The MACD reversed downwards, forming a new sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic maintains a strong downward direction and rapidly approaches its lows, indicating the risks of the oversold US dollar in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9200, 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350. | Support levels: 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9036, 0.9000.
