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Inflation in Turkey Rapidly Declines

4/7/2023 1:24 PM

The USD/TRY pair is moving within a stable upward range of 18.8000–19.4000, artificially staying there until the presidential elections over a month away.

According to preliminary polls, the current head of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is in the lead by a slight margin, and the main factor that can ensure his final victory is success in the domestic economy. This week, March CPI data was published, and the increase of the indicator was 2.29% MoM, which is still lower than the increase of 3.15% in February but acted as the driver of the decrease in the annual value to 50.51% from 55.18 %. Inflation reduction is the main advantage of Erdogan's policy since, at the beginning of the year, analysts predicted consumer prices to rise above 100.0%.

The US dollar has been holding around 101.600 in the USD Index for the third day against the background of poor macroeconomic statistics: initial jobless claims for the week amounted to 228.0K, more than the 200.0K expected by analysts, and the average number of claims for four weeks reached 237.75K, significantly exceeding the forecasts of 196.50K.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves within an ascending wave, approaching the resistance line at 19.3500.

Technical indicators keep a buy signal: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the AO histogram forms corrective bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 19.3000, 19.5000. | Support levels: 19.2000, 19.0000.

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