The XAU/USD pair shows a slight increase, developing a "bullish" signal from February 17. At the end of last week, "bearish" sentiment prevailed on the market, but on Friday, despite the update of local lows from December 30, the instrument still managed to recover and consolidate in the "green" zone. Nevertheless, as before, the pressure on the quotes is exerted by the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve officials, who are in favor of a further increase in the interest rate.
Moreover, a further increase in the cost of borrowing is currently supported by almost all the leading central banks of the world, noting that it is still not possible to completely overcome inflationary risks. Tomorrow, Canada will publish statistics on consumer inflation, forecasts for which assume that in January the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy will be adjusted from 5.4% to 5.5% in annual terms, and in monthly terms it will reach 0.2% after declining 0.3% in December. However, the Consumer Price Index is expected to slow down from 6.3% to 5.7%. In addition, on Wednesday, February 22, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its decision on the interest rate: the value can be increased by 50 basis points to 4.75%.
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting appearance of multi-directional dynamics in the ultra-short term. MACD is trying to reverse upwards but preserves its previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows more confident growth, rapidly retreating from its lows, which signal that the instrument is oversold in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1850.27, 1869.49, 1886.46, 1900.00. | Support levels: 1828.22, 1816.62, 1800.00, 1786.28.