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GBPUSD analysts predict lower US inflation

2/13/2023 2:04 PM

Against the backdrop of poor macroeconomic data, the GBP/USD pair is declining, trading at 1.2044

The UK's gross domestic product (GDP) in December corrected by –0.5% from 0.1% earlier, which led to a zero dynamics QoQ. Thus, the annual value in the fourth quarter was 0.4%, which is significantly lower than 1.9% in 2021. The construction sector, whose growth slowed down to 3.7% from 4.6%, had a key impact on the dynamics of indicators and the sector manufacturing industry, which remained in negative territory at December levels. Tomorrow data on the labor market and wage levels will be published, the deterioration of which could cause a significant decline in the pound.

The US currency is strengthening, having completed last week's trading at 103.600 in the USD Index for the first time since the beginning of this year. According to experts, there are still no real reasons for positive dynamics in the market, and this movement could be caused by a short-term reaction to forecasts for January inflation, data on which will be published on Tuesday. Analysts expect consumer prices to continue to decline to 6.2% from 6.5% previously.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is holding below the support line of the global ascending corridor with dynamic boundaries 1.2440–1.2900, preparing for a decline.

Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator expands downwards, and the AO histogram forms downward bars below the transition level.

Resistance levels: 1.2185, 1.2445. | Support levels: 1.1904, 1.1633.

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