Solid News

The EUR/USD pair is actively adding in value this week, but at the moment the price has suspended the upward movement at the level of 1.0900.

Positive macroeconomic data and the attitude of the members of the Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) to further increase the interest rate contributed to the growth of the euro. Thus, the composite index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone from S&P Global in March decreased from 54.1 points to 53.7 points, which turned out to be worse than neutral forecasts, and the indicator for the service sector for the same period fell from 55.6 points to 55.0 points, while analysts also did not expect any changes. The negative results were partially offset by strong statistics on production orders in Germany: in February they increased by 4.8% on a monthly basis after an increase of only 0.5% in January, while experts expected a slowdown to 0.3%. In annual terms, the indicator improved from -12.0% to -5.7% with forecasts of -10.5%.

In turn, ECB officials are discussing further interest rate increases. The head of the National Bank of Austria, Robert Holzmann, believes that an adjustment of 0.5% in May is still relevant, and the governor of the Bank of Slovenia, Bostjan Vasle, during his speech once again stressed that core inflation in the eurozone has an upward trend. If the majority of the bank's board members support the continuation of the "hawkish" exchange rate, the euro is likely to strengthen its position against the US currency.

In turn, the pressure on the USD is increasing this week with the publication of macroeconomic statistics: March data on changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) were below the forecast of 200.0K and amounted to 145.0K.

The long-term trend is upward. After the return of the price to the area of 1.0750, the instrument actively strengthens its positions and rushes to the February maximum of 1.1010, in case of an update of which the movement will continue to the level of 1.1170. Otherwise, we should expect a decline to the level of 1.0750.

The mid-term trend is upward. Within its framework, the asset reached the 1.0961–1.0940 zone, and if buyers manage to break it, the next target will be 1.1173–1.1152. Long positions can be considered on a correction from the support area of 1.0761–1.0740 with a target at the maximum of the current week (1.0970).

Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1170.

Support levels: 1.0750, 1.0550, 1.0350.