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EURUSD Marked Update

3/31/2023 10:31 AM

The EUR/USD pair shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near 1.0900 and local highs from February. The day before, the single currency showed a fairly active growth, which was associated with a further improvement in risk sentiment in the market in response to the stabilization of the situation around the banking crisis in the US and Europe. Fears about the closure of more credit institutions are gradually weakening, and the fight against inflation and the prospects for tightening monetary policy by global financial regulators are again coming to the fore.

The March consumer inflation statistics published yesterday reflected the success of the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), which plans several more interest rate hikes this year. The Consumer Price Index in Germany in annual terms slowed down from 8.7% to 7.4%, which turned out to be slightly higher than analysts' expectations of a decrease to 7.3%, and in monthly terms inflation rose by 0.8%, repeating the dynamics of February. The Harmonized CPI slowed down from 9.3% to 7.8%, while forecasts suggested a decline to 7.5%. The released data confirms the opinion of European regulator officials that the "hawkish" policy should be continued. In this regard, one could note the latest comments by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, who said that the bloc's core inflation is still resilient despite falling energy prices and may not fall as quickly as previously predicted. Anyway, the Harmonized CPI in Germany fell to the lowest values since April 2022, which suggests a strong downtrend. Separately, investors paid attention to inflation statistics from Spain: the Harmonized CPI showed a sharp slowdown from 6.0% to 3.1%, while the forecast was 4.0%. These inflation growth rates were the lowest since August 2021.


Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought euro in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051. | Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0758, 1.0700.


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