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EU GDP Forecasts Remain Negative

1/11/2023 11:34 AM

Against the negative forecasts regarding the growth of the EU economy, the EUR/USD pair slowed down growth and is currently correcting around 1.0747.

According to yesterday's forecast of the international rating agency Moody's Investor Service, next year, the final gross domestic product (GDP) of the EU countries will be 0.6% instead of the previously estimated 4.5%: among the main factors of decline, experts name inflation and the energy crisis. Among other things, the economy of Slovakia may be significantly affected, which will fall by 1.4%. Also, a contraction of 0.2% is expected in Poland and Hungary. In the Czech Republic, the dynamics may reach –0.3%, and in Croatia, the economy will lose 1.3%. The biggest pressure on the region's total will come from Germany, where the value is expected to correct by –1.8%. Thus, despite the predicted slowdown in inflation, analysts see no prospects for a recovery in the EU economy.

Investors' hopes for yesterday's speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not come true, and dollar quotes remained at 103.000 in the USD Index. At the Central Bank of Sweden conference, the official limited himself to general phrases about the independence of the American regulator without touching on its monetary policy, and most of his speech was devoted to climate issues. Still, in the end, Powell confirmed that the department's main goals are to ensure maximum employment and price stability.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting towards the resistance line of the ascending corridor.

Technical indicators point to continued growth, maintaining a stable range of fluctuations: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars, rising in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.1000. | Support levels: 1.0620, 1.0400.

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