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BTCUSD Market Analysis

3/13/2023 1:44 PM

Last week, the BTC/USD pair had ambiguous dynamics: at first the price dropped to the 19570.00 area against the background of the bankruptcy of Silvergate Bank, which actively worked with digital sector companies, but at the end of the week the growth resumed, and now the quotes have regained losses, rising to the 22560.00 area.

The new upward trend common to the cryptocurrency market was caused by two factors: the publication of February data on the American labor market and the reaction of the authorities to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The labor market in February as a whole showed the first signs of weakening: despite a significant increase in employment by 311.0K instead of the expected 205.0K, the unemployment rate adjusted from 3.4% to 3.6%, and the growth of average hourly wages slowed from 0.3% to 0.2%. These data aroused the first suspicion of experts that US Fed officials at the next meeting may raise the interest rate by only 25.0 basis percentage points, and not by 50.0 basis percentage points, as previously thought.

Analysts were finally convinced about the possibility of slowing down the tightening of monetary policy after the bankruptcy of SVB bank, which was caused by investor panic and a liquidity crisis. In order to calm the market and prevent the ruin of new financial institutions, the US administration announced that SVB clients would have access to their deposits. It was also announced the creation of a special mechanism for banks in need to access emergency funds. According to most observers, in these conditions, the US Fed will have to reduce the pace of interest rate hikes in order not to create additional pressure on the financial sector and the economy as a whole. In this case, the US currency will lose some of its support, and alternative assets, including digital ones, may begin to grow.

Technically, the price is trying to consolidate above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (22500.00), however, a serious increase in quotations will be possible if the 23000.00 mark is broken out (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The target of the movement will be the mark 25000.00 (Murray level [8/8]). Otherwise, the decline will resume to the area of 20312.50 (Murray level [5/8]) and 18750.00 (Murray level [4/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are reversing, the MACD histogram is shrinking in the negative zone, and the Stochastic is directed upwards.

Resistance levels: 23000.00, 25000.00, 26562.50. | Support levels: 21875.00, 20312.50, 18750.00.

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