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BTCUSD Market Analysis

12/19/2022 2:08 PM

Last week, the BTC/USD pair had ambiguous dynamics: having reached two-month highs around 18360.00, it lost its gains and returned to 16750.00.

Monetary factors are still the main drivers of the quotes movement. The initial positive dynamics were associated with the release of November statistics on US inflation, which recorded a slowdown in consumer price growth in the country for the second month in a row and strengthened investors' hopes that the US Federal Reserve would soften its "hawkish" rhetoric. Still, the results of the regulator's meeting on Wednesday disappointed the market. Officials expectedly adjusted the rate of the interest rate hike from 75.0 bps to 50.0 bps to 4.50% but said that the problem of high inflation has not yet been resolved, and monetary tightening should be continued. At the same time, experts in the department predicted a decrease in the indicator no earlier than 2024. Similar statements were made by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, putting even more pressure on digital assets.

The crypto-currency sector continues to experience the negative effects of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange, which led to the outflow of capital and the loss of confidence in large financial institutions. Fear of a further shutdown of large crypto projects is forcing insurance companies, in particular Lloyds Bank plc., to refuse to cooperate with digital companies, which reduces the likelihood of new large players entering the market and may cause the traditional Santa rally to be canceled this year.

The trading instrument is at 16750.00 and may continue to decline around the November lows at 15700.00, 15000.00 (Murrey [4/8]). The key "bullish" seems to be the resistance zone 17500.00–17830.00 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If it is broken, quotes may rise to 19100.00 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 20000.00 (Murrey [8] /8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is near the zero zone, its volumes are insignificant, and Stochastic is reversing upwards but has not yet left the oversold zone.

Resistance levels: 17830.00, 19100.00, 20000.00. | Support levels: 15700.00, 15000.00, 13750.00.

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