During the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting after yesterday's moderate decline, as a result of which the asset failed to consolidate on new local highs of January 3.
The negative dynamics are mainly due to technical factors, as there are enough positive factors in the market. The Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Suhail Al Mazroui, considers the current situation in the oil market balanced, although instability is recorded both in terms of demand and supply. In turn, production from OPEC members decreased by 3.7M barrels per day due to falling investment in the sector.
On Tuesday, China reported Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.9%, after rising 3.9% in the prior reporting period, although analysts had expected the economy to slow to 1.8%. In quarterly terms, the indicator showed zero dynamics, while experts expected a reduction of 0.8%. In addition, industrial production in December slowed down from 2.2% to 1.3%, significantly better than market forecasts of 0.5%.
The rhetoric of the Chinese authorities regarding the partial lifting of the COVID-19 "zero tolerance" policy may support the asset quotes: imports of crude oil in December reached 11.3M barrels per day, and exports of petroleum products – 7.7M tons, the highest since the beginning of the epidemic. In the first quarter, against the backdrop of the celebration of the Eastern New Year, which will be celebrated on January 20, aviation fuel consumption will increase with the start of citizens' travel. Energy Aspects analysts believe that after the lifting of quarantine restrictions in China this year, oil imports may increase by 1.1M barrels per day.
Soon, investors expect the publication of reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which may indicate an expected increase in energy demand, providing moderate support to the trading instrument.
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat: the price range remains almost unchanged but remains quite spacious for the current market activity level. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and trying to consolidate above the zero line. Stochastic retreated from its highs and tries to reverse into a downward plane, indicating the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 85.15, 86.00, 87.33, 89.20. | Support levels: 83.89, 82.27, 81.00, 80.00.