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Bank of Japan will Continue the Dovish Rate Until the Inflation is Stable

11/17/2022 10:56 AM

The yen managed to recover some of the lost positions against the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, as well as foreign exchange interventions initiated by the Bank of Japan, and at the moment, the USD/JPY pair is correcting around 139.62.

On Monday, the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the regulator would continue to pursue the "dovish" monetary policy to support economic activity and achieve strong and stable inflation, accompanied by rising wages, which lags behind forecasts for the third consecutive quarter. In the spring, the government plans to hold talks with trade unions and company management, during which an agreement can be reached on increasing employees' wages by 3.0% instead of the 2.0% previously expected. According to officials of the regulator, this will be possible due to a decrease in inflationary pressure in the country to 1.5% due to a correction in world prices for raw materials.

As for the US dollar, macroeconomic statistics remain mainly in the red zone, not justifying analysts' expectations. The data on industrial production in the US prevented the development of the upward momentum of the USD Index and the retreat from 106.500, the volume of which decreased by 0.1% in October instead of the projected growth of 0.2%, which, in turn, contributed to the slowdown in the annual values ​​from 4.96% to 3.28% and the continuation of the negative trend that began in May this year. Commodity stocks in retail trade were worse than experts' expectations. Their volume was corrected by –0.1% from 0.6% a month earlier.


The instrument is trading below the global ascending corridor on the daily chart, which it left at the end of last week.

Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, trading below the transition level, continues to form downward bars.

Support levels: 137.65, 132.86. | Resistance levels: 140.80, 145.00.

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