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AUDUSD Investors Expect Increased Volatility in the USD

11/23/2022 1:11 PM

Amid the decline of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is correcting around 0.6639.

The Australian currency again lost its position amid uncertainty about the next steps of the financial authorities. Until last month, the national regulator announced plans to adjust monetary stimulus in advance, but investors do not have a complete picture of how the Reserve Bank of Australia will act at the next meeting. In his report yesterday, the head of the department, Philip Lowe, said that officials are considering several options, including returning to raising interest rates by 50.0 basis points and maintaining them at the current level. Meanwhile, business activity indicators in the country are declining: thus, Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 points from 52.7 points, and Service PMI fell to 47.2 points from 49.3 points earlier.

The period of low volatility of the US dollar, supported by the lack of macroeconomic statistics, may end after today's publications. According to analysts' forecasts, Initial Jobless Claims may rise to 225.0K from 222.0K a week earlier, and the number of building permits may decrease to 1.526M from 1.564M a month earlier. Also, Durable Goods Orders fell into the negative zone, amounting to –0.5% last month.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downward channel, and the first attempt to exit it was unsuccessful.

Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal, which supports a new attempt to exit the channel: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms multidirectional bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6709, 0.6890. | Support levels: 0.6586, 0.6409.

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