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The European Currency is Developing a Weak Uptrend

3/15/2023 10:39 AM

The EUR/USD pair shows a weak growth, developing an uptrend that formed in the middle of last week. The instrument is testing 1.0750 for a breakout, updating the local highs of February 14.

Market activity remains moderate, as investors are in no hurry to open new positions before tomorrow's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy. The regulator is expected to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.5% per annum, after which it should not be ruled out that the ECB will try to take a wait-and-see attitude. On Friday, March 17, the eurozone will release February data on inflation dynamics, which will also help shape the ECB's approximate plans for borrowing costs in the near future. The Consumer Price Index is projected to add 0.8% MoM and 8.5% YoY, still well above the regulator's target of 2.0%.

In addition, analysts assess the prospects for the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Previously, the market was counting on an increase in interest rates by 25 basis points, but some experts allowed an increase by 50 basis points at once in response to the continued rise in inflation. However, the failure of two large US banks earlier in the week changed the attitude towards the feasibility of a "hawkish" approach. Yesterday the February statistics on inflation in the US was released, which indicated a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index from 6.4% to 6.0% and the Core CPI from 5.6% to 5.5%.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding from above, having difficulty keeping pace with the activity of the "bulls" in recent days. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its highs, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating overbought euro in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900. | Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.

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