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Australian Dollar Returned to Decline

2/15/2023 11:10 AM

The AUD/USD pair shows an active decline, correcting after a two-day growth at the beginning of the week, which resulted in a short-term update of local highs from February 3. In the focus of investors' attention is the January statistics on consumer inflation released in the US yesterday, which confirmed the expectations of experts on the possible completion of the cycle of tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve.

The Consumer Price Index in annual terms in January showed a slowdown from 6.5% to 6.4%, while analysts expected 6.2%, and in monthly terms the indicator increased from 0.1% to 0.5%, which fully agreed with the forecasts. Experts attribute the temporary acceleration of inflation at the beginning of the year to an increase in gasoline prices by more than 3.0%. The Core CPI, which does not include food and energy prices in the calculation scheme, slowed down from 5.7% to 5.6% in annual terms against the expected 5.5%, and remained at 0.4% in monthly terms.

Significant support for the instrument was provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia yesterday. National Australia Bank's Business Conditions increased from 13.0 points to 18.0 points, and the Business Confidence indicator rose from -1.0 points to 6.0 points. In addition, the Sales Index rose from 20.0 to 28.0, but Westpac Consumer Sentiment fell from 5.0% to -6.9% in February, reflecting unprecedented pressure on Australian households exerted by inflation and a "hawkish" policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. MACD, after a short period of growth, again reversed into a downward plane, forming a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic stopped growing and reversed into a horizontal plane approximately in the center of its area, reacting to the emergence of a strong "bearish" trend during today's Asian session.

Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100. | Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6750.

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