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BTCUSD Market Update

2/6/2023 2:06 PM

Last week, the BTC/USD pair was trading in the main range of 22500.00-23750.00 (Murray levels [6/8]-[7/8]). The market situation remains difficult, as investors hope for a weakening of the pace of monetary policy tightening by the US Fed, but the growth of quotations is still partially restrained by the negative consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange.

Thus, the market took the results of the meeting of the American regulator positively: the interest rate was increased by 25.0 basis percentage points instead of 50.0 basis percentage points, as it was earlier. The head of the department Jerome Powell acknowledged the beginning of disinflationary processes in the economy and expressed confidence that a further serious recession in the American economy will be avoided. These comments pushed the BTC price to annual highs around 24250.00. At the same time, January data on the US labor market, published on Friday, turned out to be much stronger than calculations and again led to a drop in prices to the area of 22800.00. These statistics have caused investors to fear that the regulator will maintain tougher and less liquid monetary conditions for a long time, since the labor market is still strong.

Additional factors of pressure on quotations have traditionally been the consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange and the accompanying prolonged weakening of prices in the market. So, to reduce financial costs, the analytical company Chainalysis announced a reduction of about 5.0% of the staff, the cryptocurrency investment management platform and tax reporting CoinTracker — of 20.0%, and the Bittrex crypto exchange has already laid off about 30.0% of employees. It should also be noted that MicroStrategy, a company engaged in the creation of analytical software for business, announced its losses in Q4 2022 in the amount of 249.0M dollars. The deterioration of financial indicators was facilitated by a decrease in the value of BTC tokens on the company's balance sheet, as well as their partial sale (704.0 BTC). Nevertheless, the management promised to keep the course for the acquisition of new volumes of the first cryptocurrency.

In general, the market situation is stable, and investors expect new factors that can determine the further movement of prices. 

The key for the "bears" is the mark of 22500.00 (Murray level [6/8]) under the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, when consolidated below it, the decline will continue to the levels of 21250.00 (Murray level [5/8], Fibo retracement 61.8%) and 20000.00 (Murray level [4/8], Fibo retracement 50.0%). Consolidation of quotes above the mark of 23750.00 (Murray level [7/8]) will give the prospect of growth to the area of 25000.00 (Murray level [8/8]) and 26250.00 (Murray level [+1/8]).

Technical indicators allow for the possibility of further downward correction: the Bollinger Bands start moving horizontally after growth, the Stochastic is directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is shrinking in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 23750.00, 25000.00, 26250.00. | Support levels: 22500.00, 21250.00, 20000.00.

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