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AUDUSD Medium-term Trend Remains Upwards

2/6/2023 1:23 PM

After a sharp decline at the end of last week, the AUD/USD pair is correcting, testing the level of 0.6940 for a breakout.

Positive dynamics are developing with poor support from macroeconomic statistics from Australia: December housing lending decreased by 5.7%, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of –2.8%, while retail sales in January corrected by –3.9%, which coincided with the forecast, but it was lower than the previous value of 1.7%. According to a Reuters interest rate survey among leading economists, most believe the regulator will raise the rate by 25.0 basis points tomorrow and make another similar increase in March. Thus, the Australian economy is still experiencing economic difficulties, and the current situation remains the driver of the movement of asset quotes, with the target at 0.6870.

Meanwhile, the USD Index gained 2.14% against last week's lows on the back of strong data on the US labor market: nonfarm payrolls in January amounted to 517.0K, which is higher than the forecast of 185.0K and the previous value, which was corrected from 223.0K to 260.0K, and the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low, amounting to 3.4%, which was lower than the preliminary estimates of experts at 3.6% and 3.5% in December. Thus, according to the instrument developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the FedWatch Instrument, the probability of another 0.25% increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate at the next meeting increased to 64.0% compared to 40.5% a week ago.

The long-term trend is upward, and after reaching the resistance level of 0.7130, a correction began with the target at 0.6870. If it holds, the quotes will continue to grow with the update of the February highs, and in case of a breakdown, they may test the support level of 0.6670.

The medium-term trend remains upwards, but the pair is now trying to consolidate below the key range support of 0.6957–0.6937. If the price returns to 0.6960, the growth will probably continue with the target at the last week's high at 0.7155, and if the quotes move below 0.6930, the trend will reverse downwards with the target at zone 2 (0.6757–0.6737).

Resistance levels: 0.7130, 0.7275, 0.7450. | Support levels: 0.6870, 0.6670, 0.6585.

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