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Markets Fear that Russia will Completely Hide Data on Oil Exports

1/5/2023 1:48 PM

Prices for benchmark Brent Crude Oil are correcting, trading just below the 79.00 mark.

Quotes continue the downward trend, which began after reports that the Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation is developing a bill according to which it is planned to prohibit the publication of data on the volumes of oil transported by Transneft abroad.  The ministry noted that this information may be the reason for increased sanctions pressure on the national fuel and energy industry. Experts believe that this step is an attempt to hide the real facts of trade cooperation between the Russian Federation and the countries that took the initiative to set the price limit after Russia publicly stated that it was impossible to cooperate with partners who supported the new pricing mechanism. Thus, the Russian Federation can maintain the volume of supplies of "black gold" to the EU even after the ban, which is a positive signal for the supply of oil and puts pressure on quotations. If the document is approved, the restrictions will come into force in March.

Another factor that put pressure on the quotes was China's intention to transfer settlements on trade operations to the yuan, which in the long term may weaken the global dominance of the USD. Against the background of these reports, the Financial Times published an article assessing the prospects of the market after a possible transition to a similar calculation formula. According to experts, this may lead to the fact that it is the yuan that will become the main payment energy unit, which will further push the dollar to fall.  

On the daily chart, the price continues to trade within the descending corridor, again approaching the minimum at 76.50.

Technical indicators have started to strengthen the sell signal again and are rapidly expanding the range of fluctuations: the fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line again, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new descending bars, holding below the transition level.

Support levels: 76.70, 72.00. | Resistance levels: 80.50, 86.00.

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