Against a downward correction in the US dollar, the NZD/USD pair reached 0.6400 but failed to consolidate above it, as positive data from the US were published at the beginning of the trading week, which supported the positions of the national currency.
Thus, the composite PMI from S&P Global in November reached 46.4 points, which is better than expected at 46.3 points, the service PMI was 46.2 points, exceeding the forecast of 46.1 points, and factory orders for October increased by 1.0%, more than the calculated value of 0.7% and 0.3% earlier. Also, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing PMI was better than expected 53.3 points and reached 56.5 points. Positive statistics played a decisive role in strengthening the US currency and led to the fact that the trading instrument fell below the resistance level of 0.6400.
This week there are no key macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand so market participants will be watching the data from the US on Friday. On December 15, a report on New Zealand's Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) will be released: it is expected that the indicator will grow by 1.0%, and if the actual value is better than the forecast, then the New Zealand dollar will receive support. Otherwise, a downward correction may develop.
The long-term trend is upwards. On Monday, buyers tried to break through the resistance level of 0.6400, but the price failed to consolidate above it, resulting in a decline to support 0.6285. If this level is held, the growth will continue with the target at 0.6500. Otherwise, a downward correction will begin. The RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone of the market: traders need to be careful when opening long positions and prepare for a downward trend in the medium term.
The medium-term trend is upwards. Last week, the quotes broke the target zone 6 (0.6366–0.6352), and the next target was zone 7 (0.6506–0.6492). Now, the price is in correction with a probable target around the key trend support of 0.6262–0.6244.
Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6500, 0.6600. | Support levels: 0.6285, 0.6185, 0.6085.