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AUDUSD Market Analysis

11/15/2022 1:03 PM

The AUD/USD pair is actively growing, trading around 0.6705, supported by the detailed explanations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding the monetary policy being implemented in the country.

In the minutes of the last meeting, officials noted that given the increased forecast for inflation at the end of the year, which could reach 8.0% instead of 7.75% previously, it was decided to continue increasing interest rates, following the possible options – to adjust the indicator by 25, 0 basis points, by 50.0 points or pause in tightening monetary stimulus. The key benchmark for the financial authorities will be indicators of consumer price dynamics and wage growth rates: if they do not go beyond forecasts, the regulator will raise the rate in a minimal step, thereby allowing the economy to adapt, but if inflation continues to rise, the agency will have to intervene in the process more aggressively.

The US dollar is holding around 106.800 in the USD Index, contributing to the continued growth of the trading instrument. The pressure on the currency is exerted by decreased demand from investors after US Federal Reserve officials increasingly began to use the concept of the “endpoint” of rate hikes in their statements. Yesterday, Christopher Waller, a member of the board of governors of the regulator, said that the agency would review its policy regarding further rate hikes and does not rule out a 50.0 basis point increase instead of 75.0 previously. Analysts also agree with this, in whose forecasts, a rate increase of 50.0 basis points is estimated at 80%, while an increase of 75.0 points is only 15%.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving in a downtrend, rising in the direction of the resistance line of the local channel.

The technical indicators reversed and issued an increasing buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new upward bars in the buying zone.

Support levels: 0.6661, 0.6551. | Resistance levels: 0.6771, 0.6974.

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