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GBPUSD Multidirectional Trading Dynamics

11/3/2022 1:01 PM

The GBP/USD pair is trading ambiguously, consolidating near 1.1400.

The pound is showing a correction, which has not yet turned into a full-scale decline, as the market has little information about the tax reform approved yesterday by the new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. According to preliminary data, the increase in the fiscal burden will affect all categories of society – from large businesses to ordinary citizens, who are already having a hard time, given the rise in inflation to 10.1%. The Treasury needs to cover a budget deficit of 50.0B pounds, which cannot be done with spending cuts alone. Meanwhile, economic indicators continue to decline: Manufacturing PMI for October fell to 46.2 points from 48.4 points earlier, and the housing price indicator fell to 7.2% from 9.5% earlier. Today, investors' attention is focused on the results of the meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy: according to forecasts, the agency will increase the interest rate by 75.0 basis points to 3.0%. Also, it may reveal its plans, including previously announced quantitative tightening programs.

The US dollar reacted weakly to yesterday's decision of the national regulator to raise the interest rate by 75.0 basis points, as it was already priced in, and the USD Index could not overcome 112.000 and consolidated below it. Meanwhile, there have been noticeable changes in the rhetoric of the regulator: officials of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) noted that when making the next decisions in this area, the cumulative effect of previous actions will be taken into account, which the market took as a signal to start slowing down tightening of monetary policy.

The trading instrument moves within the long-term downward channel, trading near the resistance line.

Technical indicators keep a buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1490, 1.1810. | Support levels: 1.1270, 1.0955.

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