Last week, the AUD/USD pair reached 0.6190, which keeps the price from falling further amid a short-term weakening of the US dollar after the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics last week.
Thus, the export price index for September decreased by 0.8% MoM, which was better than the forecast of –1.0% and the previous value of –1.7%. The indicator on imports decreased by 1.2%, which is worse than expected about the negative dynamics of 1.1% and the previous figure of –1.1%. The dynamics of retail sales in percentage terms showed a zero value, although analysts expected an increase of 0.2%, which is a negative signal for the economy and may provoke short-term sales of the US currency.
Tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2), investors are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy, hoping to get a full picture of the reasons for the slowdown in the rate hike by the central bank. The head of the regulator, Philip Lowe, announced a 25.0 basis point rate hike at the next meeting to preserve the country's economic outlook, but inflation is at an all-time high of 6.1%, so economists expect more decisive steps from the government.
Thus, market participants can use the short-term dollar weakness to strengthen the AUD/USD pair to 0.6390.
The long-term trend is downwards. Last week, the traders reached the key support level of 0.6190, a breakdown of which will open up prospects for the price to fall to the 0.5990 area, and holding it will lead to the development of a corrective model with the target at 0.6390. The RSI indicator has reached the oversold area of the market, signaling the possibility of corrective growth soon.
The medium-term downtrend continued last week. The trading instrument has broken the target zone 4 (0.6336–0.6316), and the next sell target is zone 5 (0.6136–0.6116). New short positions may be opened after the correction to the key resistance 0.6367–0.6349, with the target at last week's low of 0.6175.
Resistance levels: 0.6390, 0.6525, 0.6700. | Support levels: 0.6190, 0.5990.