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Lira Under Pressure from Turkish President's Rhetoric

10/14/2022 11:27 AM

During the Asian session, USD/TRY shows ambiguous dynamics, trading near 18.5650 in anticipation of new drivers in the market.

The American currency failed to significantly increase in value amid the publication of poor inflation data: the consumer price index, excluding food and energy, accelerated from 6.3% to 6.6% in September, while analysts expected an increase to only 6.5% and maintained its previous growth rate at 0.6% MoM, which also was worse than market expectations of a slowdown to 0.5%. In general, inflation in the country only slightly decreased in September from 8.3% to 8.2%, while it rose from 0.1% to 0.4% MoM, which was twice worse than analysts' forecasts. Negative statistics will allow the US Federal Reserve to continue its course of further tightening of monetary policy, and now 97% of analysts are confident that in November, the regulator will raise interest rates by 75.0 basis points for the fourth time in a row.

Turkey's central bank is still pursuing a policy of gradual rate cuts, under pressure from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who noted that the country's authorities would not follow anyone's advice and recommendations on this issue. The government's course is aimed at correcting the indicator to stimulate exports, production, and investment, as well as to reduce inflation and support the national currency. The regulator has already lowered rates this year to 12%, and meanwhile, in September, inflation reached 83.45% YoY. However, according to statistics from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), output in August added only 1.0% YoY. However, the 26th month of positive dynamics has been going on since April 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic began. However, growth has slowed in recent months, and industrial activity has declined amid the global downturn.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving in a flat: the price range is practically unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current market activity level. MACD is falling, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). After a fairly confident decline during the week, Stochastic is consolidating around the center of its working area, indicating an ambiguous nature of trading in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 18.6343, 18.7500, 18.8500, 19.0000. | Support levels: 18.5000, 18.3737, 18.3000, 18.1500.

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