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USDTRY Trading in a Narrow Price Range

9/8/2022 12:22 PM

During the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair is growing slightly, holding near 18.2000.

The trading instrument has been near its all-time highs for a long time. However, it has not yet made significant attempts to move towards 18.5000. Investors expect new market drivers to appear, particularly the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike by 75.0 basis points in September. In the meantime, US traders have ambiguous national statistics at their disposal: the Beige Book report released on Wednesday showed that economic activity in the country is practically unchanged, but at the same time, household incomes are declining, and expenses are steadily rising due to rising food prices and utility bills. Some decreases in the cost of oil and gasoline did not find a noticeable reflection in the statistical surveys.

Meanwhile, Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati said that the country would soon achieve a noticeable inflation slowdown. However, so far, macroeconomic statistics confirm only a steady increase in consumer prices: in August, inflation in the country accelerated from 79.60% to 80.21% YoY: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, under pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, remains on course to slowly lower interest rates ahead of elections scheduled for June next year to stimulate economic growth and increase production and exports. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), household consumption spending in the second quarter rose by 22.5% compared to a year earlier, while exports of goods increased by 16.4%


On the daily chart, Bollinger bands show poor growth and a tendency to reverse horizontally: the price range remains practically unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current market activity level. The MACD indicator is falling, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, located near its highs, shows a downward direction, signaling in favor of the appearance of corrective dynamics in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 18.3000, 18.5000, 18.6500. | Support levels: 18.1500, 18.0264, 17.8550, 17.7500.




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