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AUDUSD Consolidates at Local Lows

9/2/2022 1:06 PM

The Australian dollar shows a slight increase, correcting after the "bearish" momentum, which led to the renewal of local lows from July 18. The reason for the appearance of negative dynamics yesterday was the publication of rather strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, while the news background from Australia remained moderately negative.

AiG's Australian Manufacturing activity index fell from 52.5 to 49.3 in August, while ISM's US Manufacturing PMI remained at 52.8 points over the same period, with a decline forecast to 52.0 points. The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index strengthened noticeably in August from 49.9 points to 54.2 points, while market forecasts suggested a decline to 49.0 points.

Data on Jobless Claims on the eve of the publication of a report on the US labor market for August also turned out to be positive: for the week ended August 26, the number of Initial Jobless Claims decreased from 237.0 thousand to 232.0 thousand, while analysts expected an increase in the number to 248.0 thousand.

Meanwhile, the Australian authorities intend to monitor the most popular cryptocurrencies among the population, as well as analyze the volume of transactions with their participation and the most popular trading platforms, hoping to create a portrait of a crypto user living in the country. The currently observed increase in interest in crypto assets is causing concern among officials. The Chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), Joseph Longo, said more thoughtful steps are needed to protect investors, who often lose their capital due to attractive advertising and promises of high returns. According to the regulator, 44% of market participants hold digital assets in their portfolios, and 25% invested money only in cryptocurrencies.

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show an active decline: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the unconfident nature of the "bearish" trend at the end of the week. MACD is declining, maintaining a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its lows, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the risks of the Australian dollar being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0855, 1.0900, 1.1035. | Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0735, 1.0700.

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