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Iranian Oil Exports Catalyze Global Price Decline

8/19/2022 12:48 PM

The price of North American WTI Crude Oil is correcting sideways at 89.60 under macroeconomic factors.

The situation with the export of Iranian oil has a key influence on the development of the negative dynamics of quotations. At the beginning of summer, experts expressed serious concerns about the global demand for fuel when the supply of cheap Iranian raw materials to the world market was resumed, and now, according to the latest statistics, this figure increased by 30% from March 21 to July 22 and reached 870.0K barrels per day, the highest value among all producers in Western Asia. This growth was the most dynamic for the country since 2018, when the US withdrew from the nuclear deal agreement, while Iran's oil revenues increased by 481% in the first four months of the current Iranian calendar year.

Also, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, energy stocks in warehouses in the United States decreased by 0.448M barrels against a forecast of 0.117M. Still, the oil reserves held by local companies, according to the Energy Information Administration The US Department of Energy (EIA), fell by 7.056M barrels after rising by 5.458M barrels last week. Such a sharp change could not go unnoticed, and yesterday's growth of quotations testifies to this.

The situation in the oil market is still very tense, and it is already becoming clear that the OPEC+ plan to increase production levels by a symbolic 100.0K barrels per day is just a way to assess the situation and not a measure to support prices, so until the next meeting cartel asset quotes are likely to continue to decline.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is moving within the local downward channel and soon may again turn to the downside. Technical indicators confirm this probability, holding a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram forms multidirectional bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 93.33, 100.00. | Support levels: 86.41, 78.55.

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