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GBPUSD Market Update

8/4/2022 1:18 PM

The GBP/USD pair is trying to consolidate within the uptrend, trading around 1.2155, but the economic situation in the UK continues to deteriorate.

Yesterday, the analysts of the large bank UBS Group published a forecast regarding the prospects for the national currency for the autumn period, suggesting a decrease in quotations to 1.1500. Among the key reasons for the negative dynamics, experts cite high prices for electricity and energy resources amid the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as problems in supply chains. Macroeconomic statistics confirm the deterioration of indicators: according to data for July, Composite PMI fell to 52.1 points from 53.7 points in June, and Services PMI corrected to 52.6 points from 54.3 points a month earlier and this is the lowest value since March 2021.

The US dollar is at yesterday's levels, just above 106.000 in the USD Index, after several representatives of the leading regional Federal Reserve Banks spoke in favor of further rate hikes. Thus, the head of the Chicago Fed, Charles Evans, did not rule out a correction of the indicator by 75 basis points at the September meeting of the regulator, although the baseline scenario, according to him, would be an increase of 50 basis points. The head of the Cleveland Fed, Loretta Master, agrees, who believes that it is necessary to continue tightening the policy, and 50 basis points is currently a priority scenario in terms of regulating monetary conditions.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, coming close to the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2244, 1.2651. | Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1818.

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